The United States was poised for a banner year in tourism, with forecasts predicting a full recovery to pre-pandemic travel levels. Instead, international arrivals are plummeting as travelers recoil from the Trump administration’s tariffs, rhetoric, and border policies—a phenomenon industry analysts now call the “Trump Slump.”
A Sharp Reversal in Tourism Trends
Preliminary data from the U.S. National Travel and Tourism Office reveals a stark drop in overseas visitors: arrivals fell 11.6% in March 2025 compared to the same month last year. Air travel from Mexico alone plunged 23%, while early indicators suggest Canadian visits—which totaled over 20 million in 2024—could drop by as much as 20% this year.
Tourism Economics, a leading forecasting firm, initially projected a 9% increase in international arrivals for 2025. Now, it warns of a 9.4% decline, with losses in visitor spending estimated at $9 billion. The downturn threatens jobs across hotels, airlines, and attractions, particularly in states like Florida, New York, and Nevada, where Canadian and European tourists are vital to local economies.
Why Travelers Are Staying Away from the U.S.
Interviews with industry experts and travelers point to several factors:
Tariffs and Trade Tensions
President Trump’s sweeping tariffs—including a since-paused 25% levy on Canadian and Mexican goods—have fueled resentment among key travel markets. Canada, the largest source of U.S. visitors, has seen a 40% drop in leisure bookings to American destinations, according to Flight Centre Travel Group. Air Canada cut flights to Florida and Las Vegas amid dwindling demand.
Diplomatic Friction
Trump’s confrontational stance toward allies—including his heated exchange with Ukraine’s president and repeated suggestions that Canada should become a U.S. state—has alienated potential visitors. European bookings have slumped, with Accor CEO Sébastien Bazin reporting a 25% decline in summer travel plans.
“The U.S. is not perceived as a welcoming destination,” said Marco Jahn, CEO of New World Travel, which arranges U.S. tours for international clients.
Border Concerns
Reports of tourists detained at airports—such as high-profile cases involving Europeans—have further chilled demand. Searches for U.S. short-term rentals by Canadians plummeted 44% after Trump announced tariffs in February, according to vacation rental platform Beyond.
Airlines, Hotels, and Parks Brace for Impact
Airlines: United Airlines reported a “big drop” in Canadian traffic, while Airbus signaled it may prioritize deliveries to non-U.S. carriers if tariffs disrupt supply chains.
Hotels: Rising costs for imported construction materials and furniture, due to tariffs, could delay new projects. Extended-stay hotels, however, may benefit from demand tied to reshoring manufacturing jobs.
National Parks: Staffing cuts under Trump have led to delayed campground openings, including at Yosemite, raising concerns about deteriorating visitor experiences.
The Trump administration’s erratic tariff policies are rippling beyond trade disputes, disrupting U.S. tourism and throwing the aviation industry into chaos—delaying plane deliveries, snarling supply chains, and further deterring international travelers already wary of visiting America.
Tariff Whiplash Paralyzes Supply Chains
Goods ranging from cars to aircraft engines have been stranded at ports, rail yards, and warehouses for months as businesses scramble to adapt to the White House’s shifting tariff rules, according to industry sources. While aerospace has historically enjoyed tariff-free trade under a 1979 U.S.-Canada treaty, President Trump’s aggressive stance has upended decades of stability.
A220 Jet in Limbo: Workers at Airbus’ Montreal plant recently assembled a 130-seat A220 jetdestined for Delta Air Lines—but uncertainty over whether it would face a 25% tariff left delivery plans in flux. The plane, valued at $40.5 million, is now expected in June, but Delta has vowed not to pay any tariffs, setting up a potential clash with Airbus.
Last-Minute Exemptions: Just as a 25% levy on Canadian goods was set to take effect in February, Trump paused it for 30 days, then exempted items compliant with the USMCA trade deal. The abrupt changes forced manufacturers like Bombardier and RTX to rush paperwork proving compliance, delaying engine shipments to U.S. airlines.
Airbus Threatens to Prioritize Non-U.S. Buyers: CEO Guillaume Faury warned in February that if tariffs persist, the company may divert jets away from American carriers, worsening aircraft shortages for airlines already struggling with slumping travel demand.
Airlines Caught in the Crossfire
Delta CEO Ed Bastian called the situation “unprecedented uncertainty,” blaming tariffs for weakening travel demand and threatening to defer deliveries rather than absorb extra costs. The airline expects 43 Airbus jets in 2025, many from non-U.S. factories, leaving their fate uncertain.
United Airlines has already seen a “big drop” in Canadian travelers, while Air Canada slashed flights to Florida and Las Vegas due to weak demand. The “Trump Slump”—a term coined by tourism analysts—is now hitting aviation, with:
+ Fewer plane deliveries risking capacity cuts.
+ Higher operating costs if tariffs inflate parts prices.
+ Slower post-pandemic recovery as global travelers avoid the U.S.
What Travelers Should Watch
Higher Costs: Tariffs may indirectly raise prices for rental cars, dining, and shopping, making U.S. trips more expensive.
Border Delays: Reduced TSA staffing and heightened scrutiny could lengthen airport waits, especially for international arrivals.
Volatile Demand: Airlines may further cut routes to secondary U.S. cities if tourism declines persist.
Long-Term Fallout
Before the pandemic, the U.S. welcomed 79 million international visitors annually (2019). Tourism Economics now predicts a full recovery won’t occur until 2029—four years later than previously expected.
What’s Next for Travelers and Businesses?
+ Higher Airfares: If airlines face tariff-related cost hikes, fares could rise.
+ Fewer Flight Options: Route cuts, especially to secondary cities, may follow reduced demand.
+ Border Delays: TSA staffing shortages and heightened scrutiny could mean longer airport waits.
+ Supply Chain Snarls: More cargo logjams may disrupt everything from rental car availability to hotel renovations.
A Prolonged Recovery
Tourism Economics now predicts international visits won’t rebound to pre-pandemic levels for at least four years now. With Trump’s trade policies showing no sign of stabilization, the damage to America’s travel economy may be long-lasting.
For now, destinations like Japan, South Korea, and Europe are reaping the benefits as travelers vote with their wallets—and their absence.
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