Weather planning goes hand in hand with vacation planning. One thing you can say about the weather: If you don’t like it, wait a minute. When it comes to weather and travel plans, such advice might not be so easy to manage.
The weather ahead might not be so forgiving and storms brewing might not be ordinary storms. Meteorologists say the storms this winter will be powered by climate change and El Nino. Last month, the National Weather Service issued an El Nino advisory, predicting the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Weathering the El Nino Affect in Travel Planning
Travelers like Nikita Sherbina are ready.
“I’ve taken precautions for my winter travel plans,” says Sherbina, who runs a business software company in Seattle. “I’ve also booked refundable or flexible tickets for my trip, and I’m keeping a close eye on weather forecasts to adjust travel dates if necessary.”
Is Sherbina overreacting? No. Crazy weather could sink anyone’s winter vacation, and meteorologists expect erratic conditions to continue through early spring. But there’s a way to weatherproof an upcoming trip, and the time to do it is now – read on…
So what happens when the weather disrupts a planned trip? An internal survey of 1,400 Tripit users found that 15 percent were affected by extreme weather this summer, and it projects that number will rise as El Nino weather patterns form.
“Unpredictable weather could mean trouble for travelers this winter,” says Jen Moyse, vice president of product at TripIt.
Of those surveyed by the travel planning app, 41 percent of travelers stuck to their plans and only 1 percent of respondents canceled their trip. If that pattern holds, it means more of us will be stuck in traffic, waiting at the airport, or trapped somewhere in a snowstorm, unable to get home. But what parts of the country will get the worst of it?
A Difficult Winter for Travelers
Traveling during winter is hard enough, with snowstorms, rain and flooding always a possibility. But El Nino has the potential to turn it up a notch. El Nino disrupts regular weather patterns and can trigger intense storms.
What does that mean for domestic travelers? Most of the action will happen in the Southeast, which will be wet and stormy, according to Ray Schmitt, president of the weather analytics company Salient Predictions.
“The East Coast, in general, should be rather wet, but not too snowy,” he predicts.
Paul Pastelok, the lead long-range forecaster and senior meteorologist at AccuWeather, says the Pacific Northwest could have active, El Nino-fueled storms later this year, with more “hit or miss” weather heading into 2024. For late November and December, he sees more storms and precipitation across California extending into the central Rockies.
“El Nino will be strong and can be a dominant factor in the forecast,” he says.
Translation: Remember the winter storms in January that prompted the cancellation of thousands of flights? You might see a few more of those early next year. They’ll be bigger than last year’s storms and bring more rain and snow.
Jeff Rolander, vice president of claims at Faye Travel Insurance, says the extreme weather is part of a broader trend, which some experts have attributed to climate change.
“The baseline of normal has changed significantly,” he told me. “A decade ago, there’d be a couple of large hurricanes per season. Now, storms are on the horizon quite frequently, and it’s a matter of severity, not if it will hit.”
Bottom line: It’s already been a busy few years for extreme weather, as far as travel is concerned. And it’s about to get busier.
Flexibility and Awareness
El Nino could ruin any trip in late 2023 and early 2024.
“You should be mindful of this when you’re booking a flight to somewhere in the Northern Hemisphere that is prone to adverse weather conditions,” says Doughty, who is the CEO of Fly Admiral, an aircraft charter company.
Airlines use a hub-and-spoke system, which often means making a connection in Atlanta, Chicago, or Dallas. So even if a passenger is headed somewhere that isn’t prone to extreme weather, there may be a stopover in a place that is vulnerable to El Nino weather patterns.
For Sherbina, flexibility is the key to handling Mother Nature’s wrath. He’s implemented a remote work plan for his employees to ensure that harsh weather doesn’t disrupt his business. So if the weather outside is frightful, his employees stay home. It’s a philosophy he applies to his travels, too. So if he can’t fly, he switches to driving — or vice versa.
“My advice would be to always have a backup strategy in place to tackle any potential disruptions due to El Nino-induced weather,” he says.
Travel Insurance Conundrums
Travel insurance can, indeed, cover an extreme weather event like an El Nino-powered blizzard. “Once an event impacting a destination is named, like a severe winter storm, it’s too late to purchase travel insurance and have your prepaid expenses protected,” explains Daniel Durazo, director of external communications at Allianz Partners USA.
Some insurance coverage is general, covering weather disruptions. But other policies can get quite detailed, covering this but not that, so it’s important to know what’s covered before a big storm slams into your airport.
For example, a policy like Berkshire Hathaway Travel Protection (BHTP)’s AirCare, which specializes in covering flights, will kick in when there’s a snowstorm causing a flight cancellation or a delay caused by de-icing plane wings.
In addition to its air travel coverage, BHTP also has a policy called ExactCare Extra, which includes coverage for snowy mishaps like rental car collisions on icy roads or snowstorm-related delays and cancellations. Other travel insurance policies have similar coverage.
“Insurance is a small investment that can save you a lot of stress and money,” says Ajay Kumar Shrestha, a trekking guide in the Himalayas. “But you have to make sure it covers weather.”
Weatherproofing
There’s only one way to avoid extreme winter weather and still travel — and that is to select a destination carefully to steer clear of the worst of it. Head south to avoid severe blizzards. Or travel to Asia or Europe to escape the worst effects of this climate pattern.
First, find a travel advisor who can handle a crisis. Hire a competent travel advisor and make sure they know how to handle a crisis. Agents who specialize in adventure travel and business travel should fit the bill. Then, give yourself more time to get where you are going. If you’re traveling during El Nino, it may take longer if you get caught in a storm. “I personally always plan extra time on either end of my travels during the winter to ensure I’m not cutting it too close and missing an important meeting or event,” says John Gobbels, chief operating officer of Medjet.
Finally, set up weather alerts for your destination and find out what kind of trouble lies ahead. Bookmark the National Weather Service site and check out an app like MyRadar, which tracks all the menacing storms.
–By Christopher Elliott
Christopher Elliott is an author, consumer advocate, and journalist. He founded Elliott Advocacy, a nonprofit organization that helps solve consumer problems.
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