Summer Vacation Commentary 2023 is likely going to look a lot like 2022. Another airline service meltdown is on the way. It’s not a question of if, but when it will happen. And this one could make last holiday’s airline problems look like a minor delay.
Says whom? Travel experts. Says the Federal Aviation Administration. Says everyone.
“There may be some pain ahead for summer travelers,” warns Mike Taylor, a managing director at J.D. Power. “Even with airlines taking precautions, the industry’s basic infrastructure hasn’t recovered from the pandemic. There’s a pilot shortage — and everyone wants to fly.”
Summer Vacation Commentary
Even the FAA is sounding the alarm. This spring, when the agency renewed its waiver for takeoff and landing slots at the busiest East Coast airports, it predicted a 45 percent increase in delays at New York area airports this summer compared to the same period a year ago. That sounds like a whole summer’s worth of meltdowns to me.
The U.S. Travel Association predicts this summer will be a “stress test” for the air travel system. A recent survey commissioned by the organization suggests we’ve already gotten a preview, with 35 percent of Americans having reported a delay or cancellation in the last 12 months. No surprise, then, that only about one-third of recent air travelers (32 percent) are “very satisfied” with their air travel experience.
Even airlines are saying things could get bad. Many have trimmed their schedules, fearful they won’t be able to operate all their scheduled flights.
“Every major airline has warned of travel issues this summer because of staffing, potential weather and traffic controller shortages,” says Andrew Steinberg, a travel advisor with OvationNetwork.
And the air traffic controller shortage? There are 10 percent fewer fully certified controllers than a decade ago.
But what are the odds of a complete breakdown of the system? What are air travelers doing about it — and what should you do about it?
Travel Meltdown
How likely is another air travel meltdown for this summer vacation season?
It’s very likely. Although none of the experts will offer odds, all the key ingredients are there for a massive meltdown.
Demand is heating up, with summer airfare searches up by 25 percent compared to this time last year, according to Expedia.
“Airlines are still operating fewer flights than pre-pandemic, which means flights will be fuller this summer,” says Christie Hudson, a spokeswoman for Expedia.
Add to that the staffing problems for this summer vacation run up and then other potential technical issues that led to last year’s air travel problems. Airlines continue to use outdated technology that’s prone to breaking down. The pilot deficit is about to get dramatically worse in the United States. At the moment, we are 8,000 pilots short, but it will grow to nearly 30,000 pilots by 2032, according to a recent estimate.
Add a big thunderstorm or a hurricane to the mix, and boom!
What airline passengers are Doing Ahead of Summer Vacation Season?
Chip Bell, a professional speaker and author, says he reluctantly booked a midsummer flight from Atlanta to New York for a culture vacation — a week of theater, concerts, and museums.
That’s the same New York where delays will be up 45 percent.
“But I took precautions,” he added. “I’m flying out early in the morning and working with an experienced travel agent who is available 24/7 and can find alternative flights super-fast.”
And he has a Plan B in case the flights don’t leave: Amtrak. The train takes about 18 hours — which, come to think of it, may be faster than flying.
What Should Travelers Do About the Summer Vacation Meltdown?
There are ways of avoiding a lengthy delay or disruption because of an airline glitch.
Avoid Airports and Routes with a History of Delays
Do you know which airports and routes are the most delayed? According to Department of Transportation data analyzed by Air Advisor, Chicago Midway, New York’s JFK and Denver had the highest percentage of delayed flights last summer (all around 60 percent). The most delayed routes were JFK to Atlanta, Fort Lauderdale to Newark and Charleston to LaGuardia. All averaged delays of between 65 and 70 minutes. “It’s reasonable to rely on the summer 2022 data as a way to make some assumptions for the summer of 2023,” says Air Advisor founder Anton Radchenko.
Use a Real Travel Agent
A qualified human travel advisor can help you avoid the worst consequences of a meltdown. And if by some chance you end up stuck in a terminal, they can get you home fast. “A travel advisor can change the flights immediately,” says Ashley Les, a luxury travel advisor with Postcards From. “This ensures that if there are any issues, you are never on the phone with an airline.” Travel agents also have insider knowledge that will ensure you don’t waste your time standing in a long line or sleeping in a terminal.
Summer Vacation Saver: Get Travel Insurance
Most travelers don’t think of a Summer Vacation Commentary insurance policy as something that’s necessary for a quick domestic vacation. But the coming airline meltdown may have people rethinking that conventional wisdom. “The right travel insurance policy can provide compensation for the costs of additional meals, transportation and lodging while significantly delayed,” says Daniel Durazo, a spokesman for Allianz Partners USA.
Other summer vacation helpers, such as flyers rights, can be found here. In addition, here is a list of contact information for airline executives as published on Elliott.org. If something goes wrong, an email can go a long way.
Still, all the planning in the world won’t make a difference on a holiday weekend during the summer when a wall of thunderstorms moves toward the East Coast in slow motion. Bad things will happen.
Author: Travel Intel
Travel Intel scours the globe to keep readers in the know. Posting every business day with news, reviews and information travelers can use.
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