Is travel safe yet? While it is no secret that Travelers are taking to the skies again, you might say the skies are still cloudy as to the viability of travel for the foreseeable future. What travel will look like next month or a year from now is anyone’s guess with so many factors changing against an ever increasingly polarized world of consumers.
To that end OAG, the UK-based leading global travel data provider, took the pulse of some 1,800-plus U.S. travelers in July and August and so far the outlook is good. Domestic capacity in the U.S. was up 81% from June – August 2021, compared to the same period last year, and 70% of consumers surveyed by OAG have booked flights for the future.
However, while travelers’ willingness to fly is heading upward, the Delta variant, increased COVID transmission rates and vaccination preferences weigh heavily on the near and mid-term outlook. The large majority of consumers surveyed by OAG reported receiving full vaccinations. Yet, OAG found that only 15% of non-vaccinated individuals plan to get vaccinated before their next trip.
Many airlines and destinations are considering vaccine mandates to strengthen confidence and fight transmission. Sixty-eight percent of all survey respondents said they are interested in or want domestic vaccine passports, and 70% believe vaccine passports should be required for international travel. Alarmingly, of those that said they were not yet vaccinated, 56% said they still wouldn’t get vaccinated even if the airline, airport, or destination required it to travel.
“Vaccine mandates are a polarizing issue. Many airlines, governments and destinations are actively considering mandating vaccines to fly or enter, and the majority of travelers support the use of vaccine passports,” said John Grant, senior analyst at OAG. “While this may add fuel to hot fire, the ongoing strength and resilience of the entire travel market is directly linked to higher vaccination levels and lower transmission rates.”
Other takeaways from OAG’s research support these conundrums and add insight to the times we are in:
- Continued COVID-19 concerns keep some travelers grounded. Of the 30% of respondents who haven’t booked flights yet, 40% are waiting for vaccination rates and regulations to improve and 30% are waiting for vaccine passports to be required.
- The business travel outlook remains cloudy. Only 62% of business travelers said their company is planning air travel in the next 12 months, while 38% said their company either has no plans (20%) or has not specified plans (18%).
- Holiday travel expected to bounce back.The 2021 holiday travel season projects to be a lot stronger than 2020. Of the 38% of travelers surveyed by OAG that said they typically fly for the holidays, only 40% of this group did so in 2020. This year, the percentage of that group who do intend to fly more than doubled (85%). Planned capacity for Thanksgiving week tells a similar story, currently with 47% more domestic seats booked than last year.
- Booking behavior remains erratic.Nearly half of travelers surveyed are still booking on short notice (between two weeks to a month in advance), and half are booking between two-six-plus months out. Eighty-eight percent expect ticket prices to rise in the next 12 months.
Similarly, MMGY Travel Intelligence released survey findings from its 2021 “Fall Edition” of Portrait of American Travelers that was fielded in late July. The report notes continuing strength in traveler sentiment, including high expectations for holiday travel among vaccinated and unvaccinated travelers alike.
Differences Between Vaccinated and Unvaccinated Travelers
While more than half (54%) of all active leisure travelers have received a COVID-19 vaccine, it is surprising to note that vaccination status had little measurable impact on intentions to travel. In fact, 80% of active leisure travelers who are vaccinated plan to take a leisure trip during the next six months, compared to 81% of those who do not plan to get vaccinated.
However, the differences are more notable in how people are planning to travel. Significantly more vaccinated travelers are planning to stay in a hotel/resort, travel by personal car, visit friends and family, take a domestic flight and take an international trip over the next six months in comparison to those who do not plan to get vaccinated. Unvaccinated travelers were slightly more likely to plan travel for a conference or convention (10%) than those who are vaccinated (6%).
Vax Impact on Travel
When asked about hypothetical vaccination requirements for both business and leisure travel, a majority of respondents indicated such requirements would impact the likelihood they would choose to travel. Compared to other generations, Millennials were the most likely to indicate they would attend a business meeting or convention, stay in a hotel or resort, or take a flight or cruise if proof of vaccination was required for all fellow travelers and employees or travel companies.
What Will Holiday Travel Look Like this Year?
Eager to reunite with friends and family and renew favorite holiday traditions, 42% of U.S. adults indicated they plan to travel this year for the winter holiday season. Younger generations have even stronger intentions to travel, with 61% of Millennials and 52% of Gen Zs planning to pack their bags for at least one of these holidays. Of those planning holiday trips, 42% intend to visit the homes of friends and family, followed by 31% who plan to take a family leisure vacation (not to visit friends/family), and 28% plan to meet family or extended family members in a vacation destination. Distance does not appear to be a key factor in determining the holiday destination, with 42% of those who have holiday travel plans expecting to travel more than 500 miles away from home.
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